Alberta Election Patterns

Thanks to those who urged me to get back to this blog especially with an election on!

I was probably among the first to point out the "3 and out" pattern in Alberta's political history, many years ago when I taught a course on Western Canadian History.  During the current campaign there have been a number of references to this pattern even though it was broken by Premiers Stelmach and Redford.

Briefly, the pattern was: long periods in power by a party with huge majorities; then a pivotal election when the governing party was overwhelmingly defeated by an entirely new party who won a large majority.  On top of this was the pattern that each governing era featured three premiers. Thus it went:
     Liberals: 1905 - 1921 - Premiers Rutherford, Sifton, Stewart
     United Farmers of Alberta: 1921 - 1935 - Premiers Greenfield, Brownlee, Reid
     Social Credit: 1935 - 1971 - Premiers Aberhart, Manning, Strome
     Progressive Conservatives: 1971 - 2012 - Premiers Lougheed, Getty, Klein - AND then - Stelmach, Redford

Some are pointing to this overall pattern as foreshadowing a large scale victory by newcomer Wildrose in 2012.

Another dichotomy that has emerged in the campaign is between "traditional Alberta" and "modern Alberta".  Candidate Danielle Smith has put forward "cowboy values" [Play fair. Speak the truth. Keep your promise.] as central to Alberta's identity.  Premier Redford is conspicuously distancing herself from the traditional with the slogan "Not your father's PC Party" and appealing to what she sees as a new liberal, urban, multi-cultural, secular Albertan.  Each is gambling their electoral success on which Alberta will vote on April 23, 2012.

The two paradigms intersect over the question of; "Will Alberta continue its tradition of a political monoculture where there are very small numbers of Opposition MLAs.  From current polling results it appears that Albertans generally are turning to Wildrose with the significant exception being Edmonton.

Finally, it certainly seems to be time for a change as a culture of corruption and entitlement has settled over the PCs.  The polls are increasingly pointing to a Wildrose majority.  However, historical events are never as "inevitable" as they always appear in retrospect.  Will Redford reprise the fall of Kim Campbell or will Smith be in the tradition of Nancy Betkowski.  On April 24th it will all be much clearer.