Saskatchewan Votes

I was contacted recently by a member of the Lloydminster media for some commentary on the upcoming Saskatchewan provincial election (November 7). Since few of my comments survived to appear in the media, I record the actual context of my remarks below.
First, I was asked for a general prediction of the election outcome. [I've learned that despite being an Historian, I'm more often asked to predict the future than explain the past.] The simple headline version of my prediction was - "Wall Wins - Big". This was based on some polling showing the Saskatchewan Party running over 60%. These levels are enough for them to make substantial gains over their 38 - 20 seat lead at dissolution. I was asked whether the NDP promises, such as the recently announced rent control regime, would excite voters. My response was that I thought such policies hearkened back to the days of the NDP 30 years ago. I questioned how relevant they are to today's Saskatchewan. I ventured that the mood in Saskatchewan was much more optimistic these days about individual achievement with a new emphasis on upward social and economic mobility rather than reliance on government. I gathered that this general line was not exactly what the media person was expecting or wanting. The follow up question was to comment on the strengths of the NDP. I offered that in Mr. Lingenfelter they had an experienced leader [first elected to the legislature in 1978] but that still didn't seem likely to bring about NDP electoral success. Did this mean the NDP needed a shake-up? I said they might well but those prospects did not seem likely if my assessment of the changing nature of the Saskatchewan elector was correct. If it is true that Saskatchewanians are more entrepreneurial, independent, and optimistic than they were 50 years ago, then an NDP pasting at the polls is likely to move the NDP in the opposite direction. The reason for this is that when a party is far from power it attracts more ideological, issue centered supporters making it less representative of the province generally. I observed this years ago when the NDP was in power in Saskatchewan. Those attending party conventions seemed like people you would meet at any function across the province. [My cousin was party president!] At the same time, in Alberta, the NDP were lucky to have one or two MLA's and party conventions were dominated by union leaders and spokespeople for various and sundry single issue causes. The people attending seemed far from ordinary folk and appeared to like it that way.
The next question was about the prospects for the Greens. Would they make a breakthrough? My response was that, in terms of the election, they were irrelevant (standing in the polls as they were around 3%).
As a sort of consolation prize after this thorough vetting of any possible opposition, I was asked what I thought the interesting issues in the election were. I put forward two.
1. Whether the Saskatchewan Party would continue to increase its representation in urban ridings. [Some may remember the 2003 Saskatchewan Election when the distribution looked like this:]

This was the most remarkable rural urban split ever seen. In the 2007 election the Saskatchewan Party made enough inroads into the urban vote to win a comfortable majority. That trend, of urban voters supporting the more conservative approach of the Saskatchewan Party will need to continue if the prediction of "Wall Wins -Big" is to come true.
2. Whether the Aboriginal vote will show signs of "maturing". The term "immature voting bloc" was sometimes used in the early 20th Century to refer to immigrant voters who tended to vote as a bloc, usually for the party in power. The assumption was that voters were not versed in the issues or process so they followed the advice of their leaders. A good example of this was the so-called "Boss System" in many cities in the United States. [Some political scientists have pointed out that although the system was roundly criticized there was an element of democracy about it. Bosses had to deliver at least some benefits to their group and because they were able to deliver a bloc of votes they often could negotiate for such benefits.] That such a "system" is in place is one way of explaining that votes in recent Saskatchewan elections in some First Nations communities have seen NDP support as high as 98%. The argument is that it is almost impossible among "mature" voters to exceed 80% on anything. As well, the NDP have invested heavily in courting the Aboriginal vote, calculating, correctly, that Aboriginals are a large and rapidly growing demographic. So the question is, will Aboriginal voters still represent a monolithic bloc vote and help the NDP win 5 or 6 seats, or will Aboriginal voters be more diverse in their support or even transfer support to the Saskatchewan Party in light of their presumed victory?
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